The world is young: half of the 7.7 billion people living on our planet are under thirty and in Africa the average is under twenty. In 2050 only Africa will still see a rise in its population. Italy is old andwe are only second to Japan. We have 169 elderly people – that is over 65s- every 100 under 15s and in 2040 the ratio will be 265 to 100. Since 1964, when the baby boom peaked with 2.7 children per woman, there has been a constant decline and currently the birth rate is down to 1.34. If the decline continues at the present pace the number of Italians will be halved in a few generations. If this weren’t enough every year two hundred thousand Italians, some pensioners and some recent graduates, emigrate, which is also a great financial loss because the elderly take their pensions and the young are the best and brightest. Every researcher who leaves the country has cost their parents and the state about half a million Euros. The balance is not even redressed by the demagogically much criticized immigration: in this situation the economy is bound to stagnate and the balance between the retired and working share of the population no longer holds, leaving the public debt to rise. This is the ‘population trap’ which intersects the financial ‘black hole’. Where will population trends take us in Italy, Europe and the world? Demography and statistics make it possible to have solid forecasts. Let’s see what they are.